As Trump's chances of winning the election rise in the last month before the election, some industry associations in the US crop sector are now worried again that if Trump imposes new high tariffs on China as expressed in his campaign promises, and then triggers a trade war, it may eventually cause US farmers to suffer billions of high losses again.
As the main competitor of US agricultural products, Brazilian farmers will grab this "huge wealth".
Trump has repeatedly reiterated that if elected, he will impose a 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods. Trump also threatened to escalate existing tariffs on Chinese goods and impose a high tariff of 60% on all Chinese imports.
In this regard, many US industry insiders are now beginning to worry that these potential new tariffs may trigger countermeasures from China, which is the largest trading partner of the US in the agricultural sector. Once the trade war is reignited, it may make China more proactive in looking for other suppliers to meet its agricultural needs.
“If there is a trade war between China and the U.S., U.S. (agricultural) products will be less competitive than Brazilian products,” said Ana Luiza Lodi, an analyst at StoneX Group. “As a result, China will buy as much as possible from Brazil, which will drive up demand for Brazilian agricultural products and raise Brazil’s export premium compared to Chicago.”
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