On October 17, the World Federation of Chinese Cuisine and Heiyu Investment jointly released the "China Coffee Industry Report 2024", which deeply analyzed the global coffee industry chain, the current situation, development trends and challenges faced by the Chinese coffee industry, aiming to provide comprehensive data support and market insights for decision makers, investors and coffee lovers inside and outside the industry.
Overview of the Global Coffee Industry
The report points out that the global coffee industry value chain covers multiple links from cultivation to consumption terminals, forming a huge industrial chain. The quality of coffee beans is influenced by planting, roasting, and extraction processes, among which the quality of the coffee beans themselves and the roasting process are particularly critical. The global annual coffee production is about 10 million tons, with an increase of about 15% in the past decade. However, due to the impact of global inflation, coffee bean prices have reached high levels, and the global coffee roasting market is relatively dispersed, with a CR10 of less than 40%.
Current situation of China's coffee industry
In China, coffee cultivation is mainly concentrated in Yunnan, with an annual output of slightly over 100,000 tons, which has remained stable in the past decade. In 2023, China's coffee exports will shrink to a historic low of 20,000 tons, while imports will maintain a growth rate of over 20%, reaching 150,000 tons and a value of nearly 6 billion yuan. The consumption of coffee in China has increased by 167% in the past decade, reaching 350000 tons, demonstrating the increasing demand for coffee in the market.
Consumer Market and Trends
The Chinese coffee consumption market has undergone an evolution from being dominated by instant coffee to diversified consumption scenarios. Freshly ground coffee and retail coffee have become the main consumer categories, with a market size of over 120 billion yuan for freshly ground coffee and an overall market size of 150 billion yuan. The report points out that freshly ground coffee will quickly become the mainstream of consumption, and the market share is expected to increase from less than 40% to over 80%. In addition, the consumption scenarios of freshly ground coffee are becoming increasingly diverse, including professional coffee chains, fast food, tea drinks, convenience stores, and self-service machines.
In terms of regional distribution, the cumulative proportion of stores in the top five cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Chengdu, and Shenzhen) has decreased from 23% in September 2022 to less than 19% in September 2024. The coffee market penetration rate in third, fourth, and fifth tier cities is increasing. The report also specifically mentioned the market performance and development of major brands such as Luckin Coffee, Starbucks, Kudi Coffee, Manner, and Lucky Coffee.
Market Challenges and Development Space
Despite the rapid development of the coffee market in China, there is still a significant gap in per capita consumption level compared to mature markets such as Japan, South Korea, Europe, and America, demonstrating enormous potential for growth. The report emphasizes that the addictive and energizing properties of coffee have led consumers to form drinking habits, and the market potential for the future is enormous. Meanwhile, capital still maintains a high level of attention towards coffee companies, and their assistance will further promote the rapid development of the coffee industry.
Report Framework
I. Global coffee industry value chain
1. The value chain of the coffee industry: From cultivation to consumption, the terminal industry is a huge industry with a long chain.
2. The impact of various stages from planting to extraction on coffee quality: The quality of coffee beans themselves and the roasting process are the most critical.
3. Comparison of coffee bean production and characteristics by category: Nearly 60% of the production is Arabica, which has rich flavor and higher quality.
4. Coffee cultivation - Global coffee belt: located between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.
5. Global coffee production: Approximately 10 million tons per year, with an increase of about 15% in the past decade.
6. Coffee price trend: Affected by global inflation, coffee bean prices have risen to a high level.
7. Coffee roasting: Global coffee roasting is relatively dispersed, with a CR10 of less than 40%.
8. Coffee extraction has multiple different technological routes, suitable for different consumption scenarios.
II. China's coffee industry
99% of coffee cultivation in China is located in Yunnan, with an annual output of slightly over 100000 tons.
2. The annual coffee production in China has remained relatively stable at 100000 tons in the past decade.
3. Import, export, and consumption of coffee beans in China
(1) In 2023, China's coffee exports will be reduced to 20000 tons, the lowest in history;
(2) In 2023, China's coffee imports have maintained a growth rate of over 20% in the past five years, exceeding 150000 tons and amounting to nearly 6 billion yuan;
(3) In 2023, China's coffee consumption has increased by 167% in the past decade, reaching 350000 tons.
4. China's coffee roasting capacity exceeds 350000 tons, far exceeding the demand for freshly ground coffee.
III. The Chinese coffee consumption market
1. Development history of the coffee market: from instant coffee dominance to diversified consumption scenarios.
2. Classification of coffee consumption market: freshly ground coffee and retail coffee.
(1) Retail coffee domestic sub brands have emerged, such as San Dun Ban Sumida River Yongpu and others.
(2) The consumption scenarios of freshly ground coffee are rich and diverse: professional coffee chains and fast food Tea drinks Convenience stores and self-service machines, etc.
(3) Portrait of freshly ground coffee consumers: Over 60% of young female office workers.
3. The size of China's coffee market is 150 billion yuan, with freshly ground coffee exceeding 120 billion yuan.
Market Trend 1: Chinese freshly ground coffee will quickly become the mainstream of consumption, from less than 40% to over 80%.
Market Trend 2: Freshly ground coffee is developing towards diversification and segmentation, with multiple positioning models.
Market Trend 3: The opening of stores in lower tier markets is accelerating, and the proportion of stores in the top 5 cities has decreased from 23% in September 2022 to less than 19% in September 2024.
Market Trend 4: Product and order consumption have declined, with the average order value dropping by over 20% in the past two years, from 40+to 30.
IV. Top Chinese coffee chain brand
The top ten coffee brand stores account for 27%.
Luckin is in an absolute leading position in all city levels.
3. Luckin Coffee Starbucks. Kudi Lucky coffee, influencers, and others are rapidly expanding their stores.
V. Core driving factors for the development of China's coffee market
1. The total consumption of coffee in China accounts for less than 5% of the world's total, and there is a significant gap between the per capita level and mature markets such as Japan and South Korea, indicating great potential for development.
2. Coffee has addictive and energizing properties, making it a habit for consumers to drink.
3. Coffee industry related enterprises have received capital support in the past few years.
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