According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) released by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in October, China's cottonseed imports have increased in recent years, reaching a record of over 650,000 tons in 2022/23. It is expected that imports will remain strong in 2023/24 and 2024/25, although below record levels. Australia and the United States almost supply all of China's cottonseed imports, while Pakistan, Cameroon, Benin, and Myanmar export very little cottonseed.
In the past 5 years, China's imports of cottonseed from Australia have recovered from zero to over 650,000 tons in 2022/23. After two years of drought, Australia's cottonseed crop rebounded in 2020/21, with exports limited to near zero levels due to the drought. By 2021/22, due to sufficient rainfall in the production areas, Australian cottonseed production has returned to pre drought levels, resulting in a significant increase in exports. This trend of large-scale exports continues in the fiscal years of 2022/23 and 2023/24. The cottonseed production in Australia is expected to remain at a high level of nearly 1.3 million tons in 2014/25. In 2021, China expanded its market access to the United States. Since the beginning of the year, the shipment volume from the United States in 2023/24 has reached a record high of nearly 110,000 tons, with one month left unpaid.
In 2023/24, China is the world's second largest producer of cottonseed after India, and also the largest consumer of cottonseed. China produced 10.7 million tons of cottonseed and consumed 11.4 million tons of the 41.3 million tons of cottonseed worldwide. Most of the cotton produced domestically in China comes from Xinjiang Autonomous Region. This type of pressing facility, which is relatively far away from the coast, provides a market opportunity for imported cottonseed in the context of competitive cottonseed prices in the United States and Australia. Based on stable planting area and moderate growth in yield, it is expected that China's cottonseed production in 2014/25 will be 11.1 million tons, higher than the previous year. Although the expected increase in production in China has led to a decrease in the import forecast for 2024/25, it is expected that China will still import 500000 tons to meet its consumption forecast of 11.6 million tons.
Overview 2024/25
Due to the decline in soybean production in the United States and Ukraine, the global oilseed production forecast for this month has slightly decreased to 687.3 million seeds, but the increase in sunflower seed production in Argentina and cottonseed production in China has not offset this impact. Oilseed trade has slightly declined as the decline in Ukrainian soybeans and American peanuts has not been offset by an increase in Canadian rapeseed exports. Due to the reduction in rapeseed production in Canada and the European Union, the final inventory of oilseeds is expected to decrease by more than 200,000 tons. The global crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed and EU sunflower seeds increased by nearly 400,000 tons, reaching nearly 557.7 million tons, but was not offset by the decrease in soybean crushing volume in Thailand. Due to the increase in trade volume of sunflower seed meal, the global trade volume of meal has slightly increased. Due to the decline in palm oil trade volume in Indonesia, the global vegetable oil trade volume has decreased by over 700000 tons, but this has not been offset by the increase in palm oil exports from Thailand. It is expected that the average agricultural price of soybeans in the United States will remain unchanged at $10.80 per bushel.
Export price
Since the last World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE) reported adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the planting season in South America, soybean prices have been rising. Last week, global soybean prices fell slightly after rainfall in some planting areas in Brazil. Soybean meal prices fluctuate in sync with soybean prices. The price of soybean oil in the United States has been rising for most of September, along with other vegetable oil prices driven by lower supply expectations for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower seed oil. Palm oil further tightened in September due to reports of decreased production and lower inventories in Indonesia. The prices of sunflower seed oil and rapeseed oil have been rising throughout the month due to reduced crop yields in Europe and the Black Sea, resulting in a sustained decrease in export supply.
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